2023 is shaping up to be a bit of a rollercoaster ride for the job market. The biggest skills shortages in New Zealand are still in industries such as technology, construction (due to the recent weather events), engineering, and healthcare. The shortages are also due to factors such as Covid-19, a growing and slowing economy, ageing population, and low unemployment rate. However, there are some potential challenges that New Zealand may face in the future, such as:
The ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy: The pandemic has resulted in significant economic disruption and New Zealand's economy may continue to be affected by the pandemic in 2023., with nearly no immigration for 2 years NZ is short on skilled migrant workers.
International trade and tariffs: New Zealand's economy is heavily dependent on international trade and any changes in tariffs or trade agreements could have a significant impact on the economy.
Climate change: New Zealand's economy is heavily dependent on its natural resources, such as agriculture and tourism, and climate change could have a significant impact on these industries.
Ageing population: New Zealand's population is ageing, and this could have an impact on the labour force and productivity, as well as on government spending on healthcare and pensions.
Inequality: New Zealand has a high level of inequality which could have a negative impact on social cohesion and economic growth.
Housing affordability: New Zealand has a housing affordability crisis which could have a negative impact on the economy and social well-being.
The effects of a global economic downturn: New Zealand's economy is closely tied to the global economy, and any downturn in the global economy could have a significant impact on New Zealand's economy.
However with all that being said, in my own experience of the dot com bust in the early 2000s to the GFC starting in early 2007 and from a purely IT recruitment perspective I do not see a long-term downturn in IT roles in New Zealand. The simple reason is technology waits for no one. This can be most clearly defined by the recent rise of AI which in my opinion will be the biggest game changer since the arrival of the world wide web.